Occasional Paper 3/2024
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MAY 2024
Daryl Swanepoel
MPA, BPAHons, ND: Co. Admin
Research Fellow, School of Public Leadership, Stellenbosch University
Is South Africa getting safer?
The divide between perception and data-driven evidence
(Source – SAPS)
Abstract
The level of anxiousness with regard to the high levels of crime in South African society is palpable. Public perception is that the authorities have proven to be incapable of stemming the rise in the crime levels – and the perceptions are impacting the trust and the social cohesion that is needed for economic investment and growth, and social stability. This paper evaluates public perception against actual crime trends since the ushering in of South Africa’s democratic dispensation in 1994, in order to determine whether the two are in sync. It finds that crime levels remain stubbornly and worryingly high, but that the tide is slowly turning. There is hope for a safer society.
Introduction
Ask any South African whether they believe that crime is being adequately addressed by the authorities, and the answer will be no. And, of course, they are right.
When one considers the 2023 Crime Index by country, the top ten countries with the highest crime rates are Venezuela, Papua New Guinea, South Africa, Afghanistan, Honduras, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, El Salvador, Brazil, and Jamaica (Data Pandas, N.d.).
This is confirmed in a 2023 report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, an independent civil society organisation that keeps track of crime rates across the globe. According to the index contained in the report, South Africa, with an index score of 7.18, is ranked seventh highest globally in terms of its crime rates (Okafor, 2023).
But crime being too high and not being adequately addressed does not equate to it being out of control and/or worsening as a consequence of South Africa being a failing state. In this regard, there is a divide between what people perceive and what data tells us.
This paper aims at contextualising the crime trajectory in South Africa to enable public policymakers to make informed decisions, and for the public at large to better understand and evaluate the state of play as it relates to that trajectory.
The public perception
It is fair to say that South Africans are not at all pleased with government’s current performance as it relates to managing crime in the country. In fact, it riles them. Ipsos’ Government Performance Barometer for 2023 found that 78,27 percent – 55,60 percent, not at all well; 22,67 percent, not very well – of the respondents were of the opinion that government was not doing enough to reduce crime (Ipsos, 2023). And in polling done by Ipsos for the Inclusive Society Institute (ISI), 72 percent – 49 percent strongly disagreed, 23 percent disagreed – of respondents did not agree that crime was being brought under control (ISI, 2023).
When people feel unsafe, they start to look elsewhere to settle in order to build a safer future for themselves and their families. And then it is normally those with skills and capital that are able to carve out a future for themselves in safer and more stable societies. This in turn has a negative impact on the economy, which needs skills and capital to prosper. In the same ISI poll referred to earlier, 11 percent of the respondents with higher education and 11,16 percent of the high earners indicated that they were seriously considering emigrating to another country.
What does the data say?
The data tells us that since the advent of the new democratic order ushered in in 1994, the South African authorities have both qualitatively and quantitatively improved crime management in the country.
In this paper, qualitative improvements in the crime management system are demonstrated by the reduction of crime rates, and quantitative by the improvement in the resources made available to combat crime. And both show that the country has systematically become a safer place to live in. Still not safe, but safer.
Whilst the actual number of crimes has gone up for certain categories, the ratio of crimes per one hundred thousand of the population has across the range of crime categories come down, in some cases quite dramatically.
Qualitative improvements
Crimes against the person are down
The actual number of murder cases as per official South African Police Services (SAPS) statistics has increased from 25,965 in 1994/5 to 27,494 in 2022/3, that is, by 5,9 percent. However, the population has, according to Statistics South Africa, increased over the same period from 39,477,100 to 60,604,992, or 54 percent (CRA, 2024). A more objective test is the ratio of murders to the size of the population.
To this end, the universally used ratio is number of incidents per one hundred thousand of the population. Applied to the murder rate in South Africa, it shows a significant 31,8 percent decrease, from 66 murders per one hundred thousand in 1994/5 to 45 murders per one hundred thousand in 2022/3. This is illustrated in Figure 1 below:
Figure 1: Murder ratios 1995 to 2023
(Source – Data: CRA, 2024; own graphics)
It is also important to make mention here of the farm attacks and murders in South Africa. Much is made of these gruesome attacks and murders that continue to take place – and rightly so, the spotlight should be on them. And they must be condemned in the strongest terms. But the downside of the disproportionate publicity given to these murders as opposed to the other murders in the country, is that it creates a perception that there is a sinister third hand at play. Some commentators even suggest a genocide of white farmers is taking place (Akinola, 2021).
The veracity of the claims presents serious threats to the economy and South Africa’s international standing. And when the claims are made, or repeated, by influential people such as Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump (Hill, 2023), it solidifies the perception that farm attacks are politically engineered with some sinister motive.
Again, what does the data say?
According to AfriForum statistics, there have since 1994 up until 2020, on average, been 214 farm attacks and 69 farm murders per annum. As a side, it is worth mentioning that in the three years preceding the new democratic dispensation in South Africa the average for farm murders was 64; and in the last three years of available data (2020-2022) it came down to 56 (CRA, 2024).
The average number of all murders in South Africa over the three-year period ending 2022 was 24,216. The average number of farm murders over the same period was 56. Therefore, the proportion of farm murders out of all murders was 0,23 percent.
The average number of all attempted murders and aggravated robberies in South Africa over the three-year period ending 2022 was 154,896. The average number of farm attacks over the same period was, as already alluded to, 377 (CRA, 2024). Therefore, farm attacks as a proportion of all attempted murders and aggravated robberies was 0,24 percent.
How this compares with the overall murder and robbery rate in the country is difficult to determine precisely, since there is a dearth of statistics as to the actual number of people living on farms, that is the farmers, their families, and the farmworkers. What we do know, is that there are approximately 40,000 commercial farming units in South Africa (DALRRD, 2023).
So, for hypothetical purposes, to match the overall murder rate in South Africa of 45 per one hundred thousand of the population, a rudimentary calculation, as shown in Box 1 below, based on the 2023 population statistics, would suggest that there would have to be only slightly more than three (3,1 to be precise) people living on each commercial farm unit. Common sense would suggest that there are way more than just 124,000 people – that is, farmers, their families and farm workers – living on farms in South Africa. Bear in mind, there are not only commercial farms in the country.
Box 1: Calculation determining number of people needed to live on a farm unit to equal overall murder rate
Step 1: Farm murder rate / overall murder rate = Weighting Step 2: Weighting x 100,000 = Number of farm inhabitants needed to equal overall murder rate Step 3: Number of farm inhabitants / number of farming units = Number of inhabitants per farm unit Therefore: Step 1: 56/45 = 1,24 Step 2: 100000 x 1,24 = 124000 Step 3: 124000 / 40000 = 3,1
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Thus, this paper suggests it to be a fair assumption that the farm murder rate is lower than the overall murder rate in the country.
Farm attacks, based on the same hypothetical and rudimentary calculations, it is proffered, also compare favourably, given that, as mentioned above, all attempted murders and aggravated robberies in South Africa over the three-year period ending 2022 averaged 154,895, or 258 per one hundred thousand of the three-year average population.
Once again, a rudimentary calculation, as shown in Box 2 below, based on the 2023 population statistics, would suggest that there would have to be only slightly under four (3,65 to be precise) people living on each commercial farm unit. Common sense would suggest that there are way more than just 146,000 people – that is, farmers, their families and farm workers – living on farms in South Africa. Once again, bear in mind, there are not only commercial farms in the country.
Box 2: Calculation determining number of people needed to live on a farm unit to equal overall attempted murder and aggravated robbery rate
Step 1: Farm attack / attempted murder + aggravated robbery rate = Weighting Step 2: Weighting x 100,000 = Number of farm inhabitants needed to equal overall attempted murder + aggravated robbery rate Step 3: Number of farm inhabitants / number of farming units = Number of inhabitants per farm unit Therefore: Step 1: 377 / 258 = 1,46 Step 2: 100000 x 1,46 = 146000 Step 3: 146000 / 40000 = 3,65
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But for robbery, all the other contact crimes displayed similar trends. This is evidenced from the data set out in Table 1 and illustrated in Figure 2 below:
Table 1: Crimes against the person per 100,000 of the population
Category | 1994/5 | 2019/20 | 2022/3 | % change |
Attempted murder | 69 | 32 | 41 | -41,2 |
Sexual offences | 115 | 91 | 86 | -25 |
Rape | 118 | 72 | 69 | -41,5 |
Serious assault | 556 | 284 | 273 | -50,9 |
Common assault | 516 | 282 | 299 | -42 |
(Source: CRA, 2024)
Figure 2: Crimes against the person per 100,000 of the population
(Source – Data: CRA, 2024; own graphics)
As for robbery with aggravating circumstances, it has increased by 7,6 percent – that is, from 219 to 236 per one hundred thousand of the population. On the other hand, common robbery has decreased by 9,6 percent – that is, from 84 to 76 per one hundred thousand of the population over the period 1994/5 to 2022/3 (CRA, 2024).
Contact crime: Overall improvement
The overall contact-related crime (against the person, arson and malicious damage to property) ratio per one hundred thousand of the population has improved by a considerable 33,27 percent, from 1,972 to 1,316 per one hundred thousand of the population (CRA, 2024).
Property-related crimes are down
All categories of property-related crimes have shown impressive improvements since 1994/5, be they residential, business or out of vehicle burglaries. Stock-theft is also down by some two-thirds over the same period. This is clearly demonstrated in Table 2 and illustrated in Figure 3, below:
Table 2: Incidents of property-related crimes per 100,000 of the population
Category | 1994/5 | 2019/20 | 2022/3 | % change |
Residential burglary | 596 | 350 | 264 | -55,7 |
Business burglary | 226 | 119 | 101 | -55,3 |
Theft of motor vehicles or motorcycles | 273 | 80 | 60 | -77,9 |
Theft out of motor vehicles | 473 | 201 | 141 | -70,3 |
Stock theft | 122 | 48 | 41 | -66,6 |
(Source: CRA, 2024)
Figure 3: Incidents of property-related crimes per 100,000 of the population
(Source: CRA, 2024; own graphics)
All in all, the annual number of all property-related crimes came down by 42,64 percent since 1994/5, from 655,476 since then to 375,970 in 2022/3. When measuring it based on incident per one hundred thousand of the population, it improved by 63 percent, from 1663 in 1994/5 to 620 in 2022/3.
Drug-related crimes still a problem
One category of crime that seems to have the upper hand over the SAPS is drug-related crime. Drug-related crimes have more than doubled since 1994/5. These crimes have increased from 118 per one hundred thousand of the population in 1994/5 to 262 per one hundred thousand in 2022/3 – that is, an increase of 121,6%.
The authorities seemed to have lost the battle in the first decade of the new democratic dispensation and have since failed to get a grip on the problem. These crimes, based on the ratio of crimes per one hundred thousand of the population, rose by 146 percent between 1994/5 and 2019/20, with only a marginal reduction recorded since then. The ratio of drug-related crime has only reduced by just under ten percent since the 2019/20 high.
Quantitative improvements
Without the necessary resources, no law enforcement agency will be able to beat the perpetrators of crime. They need to have sufficient manpower, infrastructure and equipment. For that, the fiscus needs to provide the necessary finances.
In assessing the quantitative progress of the South African crime fighting establishment, this paper evaluates the movements in the staffing of the SAPS and their annual budget allocation, both of which have increased significantly.
With regard to the human resources of the SAPS, like the occurrence of crime, the real test is not the actual increase in the size of the SAPS’s personnel, but the ratio of policemen and women to the size of the population.
Personnel
In terms of personnel, the SAPS have increased their numbers from around 148,000 (Treasury, 1994) in 1994/5 to 187,878 in 2024/5 (Treasury, 2000). That is an increase of around 21 percent over the period.
However, South Africa’s population has grown by around 53 percent between 1996 and 2023 – that is, from 40,583,573 in 1996 to 61,988,314 in 2022 (CRA, 2024). Therefore, based on the aforementioned data, the ratio of police officials to one hundred thousand of the population has worsened by around 17 percent from around 364:1 in 1994 to around 303:1 in 2023.
That said, the figure of 303 per one hundred thousand of the population, is not, for example, that far off from the European average of 328 per one hundred thousand of the population (O’Keeffe, 2023).
And, according to Gareth Newham, head of justice and violence prevention at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), “there’s a limit to how much numbers and ratios can tell us”. He says that: “It’s not about numbers, it's about strategy; it’s about having a clear crime plan” (Cosser, 2023).
So, with that in mind, in terms of personnel, it appears that an evaluation of how the SAPS is achieving its staffing objective in terms of the planned number of staff they need to carry out that strategy, will make sense. And in this regard, over the last decade the employment vacancy rates have declined considerably. In 2003/4 the employment vacancy rate was 13,3 percent. There were 160,288 posts approved, of which only 139,023 were filled. In a dramatic turnaround, there was a 0,4 percent over-staffing, with 178,708 posts available and a staff complement of 179,502 in 2022/3 (CRA, 2024).
Budget and infrastructure
There has been a huge increase in the financial resources made available to the SAPS to combat crime in South Africa. R9,884,000,000 was provided in the 1996/7 Estimate of National Expenditure (Treasury, 1996), which has increased eleven-to-twelve fold, to R113,597,100,000 in the 2024/5 Estimate of National Expenditure (Treasury, 2024). But then again, when adjusting for inflation, one rand in 1996 would be worth R4,37 in 2024. So, the 1996/7 budget would equate to R43,193,080,000 in current value (Webster, 2024).
Thus, when considering the aforementioned, when comparing apples with apples, the SAPS, in current day value, spent around R1,064 per citizen in 1996 in keeping them safe, and this grew to R1,818 per citizen in 2024. These calculations are based on a 1996 population of 40,583,573 (CRA, 2024) and a 2024 estimated population of 62,470,000 (Statista, N.d.).
Included in the budget have been provisions for the steady increase in the number of police stations to better service the needs of the people, by ensuring that facilities are provided closer to the community. In the recent decade 2011 to 2021, 35 new police stations were built. In 2010 there were 1,120 police stations (SAPS, 2011), which increased to 1,155 in 2021 (SAPS, 2021).
Conclusion
Readers of this paper are implored not to misinterpret or misrepresent its content and findings. It does not suggest that crime is under control in South Africa. It is not! South Africa continues to have one of the highest crime rates in the world and therefore no effort should be spared by the authorities to get a grip on the combatting of crime.
What this paper does find is that:
In general, crime levels have been arrested and that the tide has slowly started to turn. The conclusions are drawn by not comparing the actual year-on-year increase in the number of crime incidents, but the ratio of crime incidents per hundred thousand of the population. This is to factor in the impact of the growing population.
There remain some categories of crime – robbery with aggravating circumstances and drug-related crimes stand out – that have not yet been curbed. The drug crime statistics are particularly acute.
The fiscus has to a large degree been responsive in providing the necessary financial resources for the SAPS to function effectively. Also, in terms of the number of personnel, there no longer appears, measured in terms of SAPS’ own strategic plans and when compared to other jurisdictions, a justification to attribute non-performance to the lack of funds. It is now up to SAPS to improve their operational efficacy.
What this paper offers:
A contextualisation as to the real, and not perceived, trajectory of crime trends in the country. It ought to assist policymakers in their planning going forward; and
It ought also, should the content be effectively communicated to the broader public, enable them to understand that the fight against crime is systematically being stemmed.
This paper does not provide comfort; it does provide hope.
References
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This report has been published by the Inclusive Society Institute
The Inclusive Society Institute (ISI) is an autonomous and independent institution that functions independently from any other entity. It is founded for the purpose of supporting and further deepening multi-party democracy. The ISI’s work is motivated by its desire to achieve non-racialism, non-sexism, social justice and cohesion, economic development and equality in South Africa, through a value system that embodies the social and national democratic principles associated with a developmental state. It recognises that a well-functioning democracy requires well-functioning political formations that are suitably equipped and capacitated. It further acknowledges that South Africa is inextricably linked to the ever transforming and interdependent global world, which necessitates international and multilateral cooperation. As such, the ISI also seeks to achieve its ideals at a global level through cooperation with like-minded parties and organs of civil society who share its basic values. In South Africa, ISI’s ideological positioning is aligned with that of the current ruling party and others in broader society with similar ideals.
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