Survey synopsis - What impact have the measures taken by government to combat the coronavirus pandemic had on the leadership and support of the ANC?
In an effort to combat the Covid-19 pandemic, the South African nation is currently under lockdown. This is resulting in a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods and on the life of society. As the ruling party of the country, it has to act in the national interest, despite the potential negative impact that some government decisions may have on its own support base. The survey covered in this report assesses the political impact on the membership and supporters of the measures taken by the authorities and the effect that it has had on the leadership of, and levels of support for the movement.
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DISCLAIMER
Views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of the Inclusive Society Institute or those of their respective Board or Council members.
All records and findings included in this report, stem from the survey undertaken from 13 to 15 May 2020 on the impact on the leadership and support of the ANC as a result of the measures taken by government to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.
Content
1. Purpose and objectives
2. Key findings
2.1 Questions aimed at measuring the level of support of ANC members and supporters for
the measures being taken by government to combat the COVID-19 pandemic
2.2 Questions aimed at gauging the opinion of ANC members and supporters on
government’s management of, and competence in, combatting the COVID-19 pandemic
2.3 Questions aimed at assessing the impact of the measures on ANC members and
supporters’ perception of the leadership of the ANC’s President, the Cabinet and the
ANC itself
2.4 Provincial comparisons
2.5 Findings in a nutshell
3. Methodology
4. Detailed summary of data
4.1 Demographic data
4.2 Perceptual data
4.3 Detailed summary of data by province
List of figures
Figure 2.1: Percentage breakdown of support for measures taken to combat the COVID-
19 pandemic
Figure 2.2: Percentage breakdown of how the management of the COVID-19 crisis is
being perceived
Figure 2.3: Opinion with regard to the performance of the authorities and security forces
in combatting COVID-19
Figure 2.4: Breakdown on views for future prospects – personal wellbeing and the
economy
Figure 2.5: Breakdown of changes of opinion with regard to the President, Cabinet and
ANC
Figure 2.6: Provincial comparisons for selected data
Figure 3.1: Breakdown of respondents surveyed per province
Figure 3.2: Respondent demographics
5. References
1. Purpose and objectives
On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organisation (WHO) was informed about the outbreak of a pneumonia of unknown cause, which was detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan. On 30 January 2020, the WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern; and on 11 February 2020 it announced the name for the new coronavirus: COVID-19 (WHO, N.d.). On 12 March 2020, Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe, confirmed that COVID-19 was declared a pandemic (WHO, 2020).
On 5 March 2020, South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases announced the first case of COVID-19 in the country (NICD, 2020). With more and more cases being declared on a daily basis thereafter, the President of the Republic of South Africa announced on the evening of Monday, 23 March 2020, that in terms of the Disaster Management Act, in a decisive effort to save millions of South Africans from infection, a nationwide lockdown for 21 days would come into effect at midnight on Thursday, 26 March 2020. During the lockdown, all South Africans, except for designated essential workers, would have to stay at home and would not be allowed to leave their homes, except under strictly controlled circumstances (RSA, 2020).
The president acknowledged that the measures would have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods and on the life of society and the economy, but believed that “the human cost of delaying…[the] action would be far, far greater” (RSA, 2020).
On the evening of Thursday, 9 April 2020, the president announced a further two-week extension of the lockdown which would run to 30 April 2020 (News24, 2020). On Thursday, 23 April 2020, the president announced a 5-level lift of the national lockdown. The first level reduction – that is to level 4 – came into effect on 1 May 2020 (Nirrandes, 2020). The lockdown will continue to trouble society for some time to come. President Ramaphosa has in the interim initiated a consultative process to consider a move to level 3 of the lockdown in certain parts of the country as from the end of May 2020, but it is apparent that in the economic heartlands of Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, level 4 will continue for some time (Mvumvu, 2020).
The Inclusive Society Institute, with a view to post-COVID-19 policy planning, undertook a survey amongst members and supporters of the African National Congress (ANC), to assess the political impact of the measures taken by the authorities and the effect that it has had on the leadership of, and levels of support for, the movement. The objective of this particular survey was threefold:
To measure amongst the ANC members and supporters, the level of support for the measures being taken by government to combat the COVID-19 pandemic;
To gauge their opinion on government’s management of, and competence in, combatting the COVID-19 pandemic; and
To assess the impact of the measures on ANC members and supporters’ perception of the leadership of the President, the Cabinet and the ANC itself.
The survey period ran from Wednesday, 13 May 2020 and closed at midday on Friday, 15 May 2020. It should therefore be viewed as a snapshot of the ANC membership and supporters thinking during that period.
The institute will promote and use the survey to inform and help guide political thinking in the interest of strengthening democracy and civic awareness. The institute supports social democracy and policy that promotes equality, inclusiveness and solidarity.
2. Key findings
This section contains the key findings with regard to the three objectives set out in the previous section of this report, namely the measuring of the support of ANC members and supporters for the measures being taken by government to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, the competence as to the government’s handling of the pandemic and the impact of the lockdown on the support for the ANC and its leadership.
2.1 Questions aimed at measuring the level of support of ANC members and
supporters for the measures being taken by government to combat the
COVID-19 pandemic
There is overwhelming support for the measures being taken by the authorities to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Ninety per cent of respondents indicated their support therefore. Only 4 per cent were not in agreement of the measures, with 5 per cent indicating that they were not sure.
Figure 2.1: Percentage breakdown of support for measures taken to combat the COVID-19 pandemic
(Source: Inclusive Society Institute, 2020)
2.2 Questions aimed at gauging the opinion of ANC members and
supporters on government’s management of, and competence in,
combatting the COVID-19 pandemic
Generally speaking, ANC members and supporters are satisfied with the government’s management of efforts aimed at combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, although there is some space for the authorities to improve. Thirty-nine per cent of the respondents believe the authorities to be “very good” in the management of the pandemic, 21 per cent thought they were “good” and 30 per cent were satisfied. Overall, 90 per cent of the respondents were therefore not negatively inclined towards the government’s efforts in this regard.
Figure 2.2: Percentage breakdown of how the management of the COVID-19 crisis is being perceived
(Source: Inclusive Society Institute, 2020)
Similarly, 88 per cent of respondents were confident that the authorities will bring the COVID-19 pandemic under control (71 per cent confident and 11 per cent somewhat confident). Only 11 per cent of respondents were not in agreement.
Likewise, most of the ANC members and supporters, albeit to various degrees, believed the authorities and security forces to be exercising their duties responsibly and that they displayed competence in the exercising of their duties. Sixty-seven per cent thought they were carrying out their duties in a responsible manner, whilst 78 per cent of respondents considered the authorities and security forces to be displaying an acceptable level of competence in the carrying out of their duties (15 per cent highly competent, 34 per cent competent and 29 per cent somewhat competent).
Figure 2.3: Opinion with regard to the performance of the authorities and security forces in combatting COVID-19
(Source: Inclusive Society Institute, 2020)
Despite the overwhelming support for government’s current efforts and measures, ANC members and supporters did not share quite the same level of optimism with regard to their own and the country’s economic future. Less than two thirds of respondents (64 per cent) believed that their own future would improve after the lockdown is lifted, whilst a staggering 84 per cent were not optimistic about the country’s economic future. In terms of the economy, only 14 per cent of respondents were of the opinion that the economy would improve in the year after lockdown to levels better than before the measures were announced. Twelve per cent thought the economy would not improve, 50 per cent supposed it would not grow to the level it was prior to lockdown and 22 per cent were of the opinion that it would only improve to levels the same as before lockdown, thus with no growth potential and further setting back prospects for addressing backlogs in society.
Figure 2.4: Breakdown on views for future prospects – personal wellbeing and the economy
(Source: Inclusive Society Institute, 2020)
2.3 Questions aimed at assessing the impact of the measures on ANC
members and supporters’ perception of the leadership of the ANC’s
President, the Cabinet and the ANC itself
All things being equal, the president and his Cabinet can draw solace from the data on the ANC membership and supporters base’s changing opinion of them. The results for both the president and the Cabinet show an improved opinion of them since the measures aimed at combatting the COVID-19 pandemic were announced.
In terms of support for the president, 62 per cent of respondents’ opinion of him improved since the measures were announced, whilst 30 per cent’s opinion remained the same. Only 7 per cent of respondents indicated that their opinion of him declined.
In terms of support for the Cabinet, 46 per cent of respondents’ opinion of the Cabinet improved, whilst 34 per cent’s opinion of them remained the same. Nineteen per cent of respondents indicated that their opinion of the Cabinet has declined. The latter aspect deserves careful consideration as to what has led to the decline.
The ANC itself, also shows that a material number (48 per cent) of respondents’ opinion of the movement has improved, whilst 34 per cent’s view has remained the same. Seventeen per cent of respondents indicated a diminished opinion for the movement.
It is important to note that these percentages do not necessarily correlate with electoral support for the particular leaders. It is an indication of changed opinion, which, in itself, is a basis on which to grow a leadership mandate.
Figure 2.5: Breakdown of changes of opinion with regard to the President, Cabinet and ANC
(Source: Inclusive Society Institute, 2020)
2.4 Provincial comparisons
In line with the methodology as set out in section 3 of this report, comparisons were done to test the national validity of the conclusions. In all three of the sampling exercises done, it was found that the trends were similar across the three provinces selected. These three provinces, Gauteng, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal, between them, made up 81 per cent of the total number of valid responses received from the survey.
In all three sampling exercises, the provinces were all within a 10-percentage point margin of the national average.
In testing the ANC members and supporters’ support for measures taken by government to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, 90 per cent of respondents from Gauteng were in support, 89 per cent from the Free State and 84 per cent from KwaZulu-Natal. The national average in this respect was 90 per cent.
In assessing the ANC members and supporters’ views with regard to the government’s management of the pandemic, 91 per cent of Gauteng respondents were favourably inclined. Of this, 41 per cent thought government was managing the pandemic “very good”, 22 per cent “good” and 28 per cent “satisfactory”. In the Fee State, the overall percentage of 97 per cent was slightly higher, with the breakdown being 37 per cent very good, 22 per cent good and 38 per cent satisfactory. Respondents from KwaZulu-Natal, were, on the other hand, slightly more critical, with the overall percentage being 86 per cent, broken down as 33 per cent very good, 26 per cent good and 27 per cent satisfactory. The national average in this regard stood at 90 per cent.
And finally, in gauging the impact of the lockdown measures on the political support for the ANC and its leadership, it was found that in Gauteng, 93 per cent of respondents either had an improved opinion, or the same opinion of the president, as compared with immediately prior to the lockdown measures. In the Free State, this was a similar 91 per cent of respondents and in KwaZulu-Natal it was 86 per cent. The national average in this regard was 92 per cent.
Figure 2.6: Provincial comparisons for selected data (Source: Inclusive Society Institute, 2020)
The institute is of the opinion that in light of the clear trend in similarities across all data sets, that the validity of the national trends have been confirmed. The national results conveyed in this report can, in the opinion of the institute, be relied upon.
2.5 Findings in a nutshell
The following general observations are deemed fair:
(i) In general, both government and the country’s political leadership, as does the ANC,
enjoys the overwhelming support of the ANC supporters for the measures they are
taking to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.
(ii) ANC supporters are generally satisfied with the competence and way in which the
aforementioned measures are being carried out.
(iii) The opinion of the President, Cabinet and ANC has changed for the better.
(iv) Despite their support for the measures being taken, ANC supporters are concerned
about their own and the country’s economic future.
(v) Despite the favourable change for the good in terms of opinion of ANC supporters for
both the members of Cabinet and the ANC, there are a meaningful number of supporters
whose opinion declined. This is an area that deserves careful consideration and further
research.
3. Methodology
The African National Congress (ANC) is the ruling party of South Africa. With 10 026 475 votes received in the 2019 general election, it holds 57,50 per cent of the vote (IEC, N.d.). As the ruling party of the country, it has to act in the national interest, despite the potential negative impact that some government decisions may have on its own support base.
Sampling, data collection and data subjects
Sampling was carried out through the dissemination of the survey by electronic means to representative databases comprising members and supporters of the ANC. In total, 499 valid responses to the questionnaire were obtained. Since “the quality of the sample will be higher, the more completely the sampling frame covers the target population” (European Social Survey, 2016), the database selected contained, with only a few exceptions, individuals that have in general expressed their support for the ruling party. Responses, although strongly biased towards Gauteng, were received from across all provinces.
Figure 3.1: Breakdown of respondents surveyed per province (Source: Inclusive Society Institute, 2020)
In terms of the respondent demographics, there was, as indicated in Figure 3.2 below, a good spread across all age groups and levels of education. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents were men and 31 per cent were women.
Figure 3.2: Respondent demographics (Source: Inclusive Society Institute, 2020)
Confidence level and margin of error
In determining the sample size, the research relied on the standard 95 per cent level of confidence and 5 per cent margin of error, which is common for social sciences studies (Royse, 2008:209).
Sample size
In determining the sample size required to achieve a confidence level of 95 per cent and a margin of error of approximately 5 per cent, the author was guided by the table published in Israel (1992) and Cochran’s (1963) formula for calculating a sample for proportions. The former suggested a sample size of 400 obtained responses and the latter, 385. Whereas the survey size should accordingly not be smaller than 400, the actual valid number of obtained responses amounted to 499, thus around 20 per cent above a standard academic minimum.
Limitation
This survey was done by means of electronic dissemination. This therefore restricts the interpretation to be representative of those members and supporters that have access to electronic means of communication. Furthermore, whilst pro-active steps have been taken to ensure data integrity, and all indications are that data is beyond reproach, the possibility of external manipulation of data input cannot be completely excluded.
Question set
The survey, as it pertains to the objectives of this report, contained a total of 10 questions, in three parts, which is set out hereunder:
Part 1 – questions aimed at measuring the level of support of ANC members and supporters for the measures being taken by government to combat the COVID-19 pandemic
1. Do you support the government’s current efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic?
Support
Do not support
Unsure
Part 2 – questions aimed at gauging the opinion of ANC members and supporters on government’s management of, and competence in, combatting the COVID-19 pandemic
2. In your opinion, how is the government managing the COVID-19 pandemic?
Very good
Good
Satisfactory
Bad
Very bad
3. Have you got confidence that government will be able to bring the pandemic under
control?
Confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident
4. Are the authorities and security forces seen to be carrying out their duties responsibly?
Yes
No
5. What is your opinion of the level of competence displayed by the authorities, including
security forces?
Highly competent
Competent
Somewhat competent
Lacking in competence
Very poor competence
6. Do you believe that the economy will in the year after the lockdown be able to recover
and to what degree?
It will not recover
Will not recover sufficiently to grow the economy to higher levels than before the lockdown
It will recover to levels better than before lockdown
It will recover to levels the same as before lockdown
7. Do you believe your life will improve after the lockdown?
Yes
No
Part 3 – questions aimed at assessing the impact of the measures on ANC members and supporters’ perception of the leadership of the ANC’s President, the Cabinet and the ANC itself
8. Has the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis changed your opinion
of the President?
My opinion has improved
My opinion has remained the same
My opinion has declined
9. Has the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis changed your opinion
of the Cabinet?
My opinion has improved
My opinion has remained the same
My opinion has declined
10. Has the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis changed your opinion
of the ANC?
My opinion has improved
My opinion has remained the same
My opinion has declined
Testing national validity
Given the out of proportion number of responses received from the various provinces, and in particular, given the large number of responses from Gauteng, it was important to do sampling within the various provinces to ascertain whether the national average was reflected in the individual provinces. If this was so, it could comfortably be concluded that the national average stood. On the contrary, were it to be found that the various provinces have considerably different views on the questions posed, an argument could be made as to the validity of the national conclusions.
To this end, a sample question was selected from each of the set of questions related to the three objectives of the research. The first question, “Do you support the government’s current efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic?”, was obvious, since it was the only question that tested the support for the measures being taken by government to combat the coronavirus. The question selected to test the opinions with regard to the effectiveness of government’s management of the COVID-19 crisis was: “In your opinion, how is the government managing the COVID-19 pandemic?’’. And lastly, with regard to testing the impact of the measures on the political support for the ANC and its leadership, the question selected was: “Has the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis changed your opinion of the President?”.
4. Detailed summary of data
4.1 Demographic data
4.2 Perceptual data
4.3 Detailed summary of data by province
5. References
Cochran, W. G. 1963. Sampling Techniques, 2nd Ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
European Social Survey. 2016. Sampling Guidelines: Principles and Implementation for the European Social Survey. [Online] Available at: https://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/docs/round8/methods/ESS8_sampling_guidelines.pdf [accessed: 13 April 2020].
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). N.d. 2019 National and Provincial Elections. Results Dashboard. National Assembly 2019. [Online] Available at: https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html [accessed: 15 May 2020].
Israel, G.D. 1992. Determining sample size. Fact sheet PEOD-6. Gainesville: University of Florida.
Mvumvu, Z. 2020. SA's big cities and coronavirus 'hotspots' could remain under level 4 [Online] Available at: https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2020-05-13-sas-big-cities-and-coronavirus-hotspots-could-remain-underlevel-4/ [accessed: 15May 2020]
National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD). 2020. First case of covid-19 coronavirus reported in SA. [Online] Available at: https://www.nicd.ac.za/first-case-of-covid-19-coronavirus-reported-in-sa/ [accessed: 10 April 2020].
News24. 2020. Struggle is far from over. [Online] Available at: https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/in-full-struggle-far-fromover-read-ramaphosas-statement-on-2-week-lockdown-extension-20200409 [accessed: 10 April 2020].
Nirrandes, N. 2020. President announces 5-level lift on nationwide lockdown. [Online] Available at: https://www.capetownetc.com/news/president-announces-5-level-lift-on-nationwide-lockdown/ [accessed: 6 May 2020].
Republic of South Africa (RSA). 2020. President Ramaphosa announces a nationwide lockdown. [Online] Available at: https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/president-ramaphosa-announces-nationwide-lockdown [accessed: 10 April 2020].
Royce, D. 2008. Research methods in social work, 5th edition. Belmont: Thomson Higher Education.
World Health Organisation (WHO). N.d. Rolling updates on coronavirus disease (COVID-19). [Online] Available at: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen [accessed: 10 April 2020].
World Health Organisation (WHO). 2020. WHO announces COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. [Online] Available at: http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/news/news/2020/3/who-announces-covid-19-outbreak-a-pandemic [accessed: 10 April 2020].
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This report has been published by the Inclusive Society Institute
The Inclusive Society Institute (ISI) is an autonomous and independent institution that functions independently from any other entity. It is founded for the purpose of supporting and further deepening multi-party democracy. The ISI’s work is motivated by its desire to achieve non-racialism, non-sexism, social justice and cohesion, economic development and equality in South Africa, through a value system that embodies the social and national democratic principles associated with a developmental state. It recognises that a well-functioning democracy requires well-functioning political formations that are suitably equipped and capacitated. It further acknowledges that South Africa is inextricably linked to the ever transforming and interdependent global world, which necessitates international and multilateral cooperation. As such, the ISI also seeks to achieve its ideals at a global level through cooperation with like-minded parties and organs of civil society who share its basic values. In South Africa, ISI’s ideological positioning is aligned with that of the current ruling party and others in broader society with similar ideals.
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